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A new report commissioned by Euromat, and produced by Regulus Partners and Helios, estimates that Europe’s black market has sustained a compound annual growth rate of 18% between 2019 and 2026, and will be worth up to €13 billion by the end of the year.

The report assesses black market activity across 28 European jurisdictions, including the UK, Netherlands and Germany. According to estimates across a mature black market ecosystem, 25 operators account for approximately 64% of relevant black market traffic.

Thanks to the “rapid growth of crypto currencies” and globally recognisable branding through marketing and sponsorships, this handful of operators are generating the majority of illegal gambling traffic across Europe.

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During a livestream on Sunday, he said he had met with “eight victims of online betting”. To reinforce his criticism of the sector and in an attempt to win over conservative voters, he pointed out that one gambler had made 1,400 instant fund transfers (Pix) to a betting site. Lula criticised the Central Bank for failing to detect such a high volume of transactions to a single company.

However, that responsibility does not lie with the Central Bank. It is the role of the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets to monitor and regulate the sector. Betting companies submit detailed daily reports on bettors’ financial transactions with the sites. A specific module within Brazil’s betting management system detects recurring transfers.

“Today I met a young man who made 1,400 Pix transfers in three months, and the Central Bank didn’t detect that this was an excessive number of transfers to the same company?” Lula said.

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It could, therefore, take quite a bit longer than the timing of the initial filing indicates. The CFTC would have to publish its action and solicit public comment after White House review before writing a formal proposed rule. Any final rule would have to undergo another review and comment period before it could take effect. 

The distinction matters for crypto businesses. The filing shows regulatory work is moving forward, but exchanges and other market participants cannot yet consider it a set of rules they must adhere to. 

The CFTC’s move also comes as other US regulators continue to craft their own crypto policies. The agency and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) jointly issued an interpretation in March on how certain crypto assets would be treated under federal securities laws.