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While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.

Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.

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The ANJ has called for operators to provide proof rather than act on suspicion alone. The guide outlined the types of evidence and “converging indicators” (faisceaux d’indices) that French courts have accepted in previous litigations, including IP addresses, device logs and connection timings.

Operators were encouraged to take several practical steps, including enhancing terms and conditions, maintaining robust evidence and uptaking technical standards.

They have also been advised to thoroughly review their Know Your Customer, fraud detection protocols and contractual terms to reflect the guide’s recommendations. 

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Spillemyndigheden said it contributed actively to this work and sat on FATF’s gaming sector working group. The regulator confirmed that many of the indicators in the report carry relevance for operators licensed in Denmark.

FATF’s warning on illegal and offshore gambling will resonate in Denmark. Last year, Spillemyndigheden secured a court order to block 178 unlicensed gambling sites, the largest such action in the regulator’s history. 

The case highlighted how illegal operators disguise their presence through multiple site variations, a tactic the FATF report also flags as a red flag indicator.